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Global Equity Markets – US versus Rest of the World

By |2019-12-03T14:48:05+00:00December 3rd, 2019|Asset Class Returns, Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment, Other Posts, Sectors & Corporate Performance|

Technology has been one of the best performing sectors in equity markets over the last 10 years, accounting for a significant portion of broader equity market performance. This phenomenon has been felt disproportionately in the US and has been backed by a strong relative earnings trend. Source: BCA  The increasing weight of Technology in the US, driven by earnings and upward rerating has been at the forefront of the trend for US equities and has pushed US performance versus the Rest of the World (RoW). Source: BCA We have gone back to test this phenomenon and to try to understand how much of a role momentum has played. Momentum, at its simplest expression, is the practice of picking winners by buying the winners. In the below-described test, we find that any combination of the largest listed US Tech companies of five years ago would have outperformed the market in the last five years. We took the largest 10 tech names from the S&P 500 from 5 years ago and used a Monte Carlo simulation (which generates a large number of random results subject to constraints) using 2,000 combinations of weights for the basket (with a 5-15% boundary restriction on individual [...]

Holding in music royalty fund added to steady return basket in Select fund

By |2019-10-23T10:21:06+00:00October 23rd, 2019|Asset Allocation, Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment, Manager Selection, Other Posts, Strategy|

We have introduced a new holding to the Select fund which delivers exposure to music royalties, an asset class which we have not previously been able to access. The Hipgnosis Songs Fund is a London listed investment trust which purchases, holds and manages songwriters copyright in popular music categories. The principal of the fund is Merck Mercuriadis who has been a successful manager of artists including Elton John, Beyonce, Morrissey and Gun ‘N Roses. He was previously the CEO of Sanctuary Records. Music royalties offer a long-term stream of cash flows to owners of music catalogues. Copyright lasts for seventy years from the date of death of the songwriter, or the last surviving collaborator with respect to jointly composed songs. Thus, songs are a very long duration asset which is typically defensive as music consumption is not impacted by the economic cycle. Royalty payments are generated every time a song is purchased, streamed, played on television or radio. Further, licence payments are made by media creators when they use previously recorded music within advertisements or films. Royalty collection must be managed efficiently by collection agencies and it is the job of song owners or managers to ensure that songs are [...]

Cerno Capital Rounders 2019 with Greenhouse Sports

By |2019-08-01T13:45:14+00:00August 1st, 2019|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, Events, Other Posts|

On Wednesday 31st July, we hosted our annual evening of Rounders and BBQ, with six teams joining us to battle it out in Regent’s Park. This year, we were thrilled to be partnering with Greenhouse Sports, a London based charity that uses sports coaching and mentoring to empower young people who are facing disadvantage to help them unlock their full potential. We had a number of the Greenhouse coaches join us on the evening to help show us the ropes, and join in on the pitches. We were lucky to have a dry evening after a few afternoon showers, and players and spectators soon got into the swing of the games. After some hotly contested matches, the Pink team (Farrer & Co) won the tournament by a ½ rounder, although there were some fantastic moments in all games that made for some very exciting play throughout the evening with plenty of fantastic catches and even a few full rounders.       Thanks to all of those who took part to make it such a great evening: BDB Pitmans, PAM, Seddons, Penningtons Manches, Farrer & Co, Withers, Canter Holland and of course, Greenhouse Sports. We have uploaded more photos taken [...]

Renishaw Negotiates a Soft-Patch

By |2019-05-29T13:32:21+00:00May 29th, 2019|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, Cerno Global Leaders, General Investment, Other Posts|

Renishaw, a UK engineering company held in the Global Leaders portfolio, held its annual Capital Markets Day on the 14th May in their Gloucestershire Innovation Centre, showcasing a selection of their machines. The company sells high precision measuring, gauging and calibration equipment to the high-end industrial and manufacturing sectors, enabling their customers to optimise processes and output, significantly reducing time and cost of production. Metrology has been core to Renishaw’s business since the founding of the company in 1973, when the original touch-trigger probe was invented by Sir David McMurtry, to test the integrity of finished aerospace components. Traditionally, finished parts are inspected at the end of the production line, if a defect is found, the entire batch is likely to be scrapped. For expensive components such as jet engine blades that cost northward of £250,000 a piece, this can become a costly undertaking. Exhibit: Renishaw Equator Gauging system next to a Fanuc Robodrill Source: Renishaw Renishaw’s value proposition to their customers is to integrate product inspection into the manufacturing process, tracking errors in real-time. Their probes and gauging systems are often found sitting alongside manufacturer’s machines on the factory floor. For instance, their flexible 5-axis probe (shown above), takes [...]

Investment Letter dated 6th February 2019

By |2019-02-06T11:38:44+00:00February 6th, 2019|Cerno Capital, General Investment, Investment Letters, Other Posts|

The MSCI EAFE Index is an index of performance of world shares, ex US. EAFE stands for Europe, Australasia, Far East. This index is often used as a benchmark for US pension fund allocators whose traditional view of the world is divided by US allocations and International allocations. EAFE Equity mandates are granted to invest in shares anywhere in the world, excluding the US. Performance is measured against the MSCI EAFE Index. US$2.2tn is managed this way. The reason for displaying this is to understand the trend in global equity markets, outside the US. The Index, captioned below by the blue line, achieved a recent peak on the 25th of January 2018 and has fallen 16.7% from that peak until the time of writing. The wider All Country ex US (the green line which includes Emerging Markets) peaked on the same day and has fallen 16.3% since then. This data includes the January rally. In simple terms, the world, ex US, has marginally escaped the bear market territory (defined as a 20% fall in an index) which it entered on 17th December. The bigger picture is that the world is slowing, although not abruptly and not currently in the US. [...]

Equity Markets – Swords Drawn

By |2018-10-12T15:55:21+00:00October 12th, 2018|Asset Allocation, Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, Other Posts|

The sudden break-down in headline indices is stimulating a great deal of considered comment and a tweet or three from President Trump. The Fed’s fault? Well, in part. We summarise Governor Powell’s approach to monetary policy as “giddy up”: to temper the US economy during a period of extranormal growth and build some reserve for future cuts when the next crisis comes along. The second part has been referred to by past Governor Bernanke as “putting bullets in the gun”. In the very short term, portfolio managers of all stripes are assessing the collateral effects of this downward move in equity markets. Questions being asked are how is the dollar responding (down a bit), how is gold responding (up a bit), how is oil responding (down US$2bbl) and finally how is the US bond market responding (down a bit in capital value terms)? Measurement of these cross correlations allows people to assess whether the correction is a crisis - the very short-term conclusion being no. The more worrying combination would be a strong move upward in gold and downward in bond yields which would be reflective of actual cash flows out of equity markets into haven assets. This has not [...]

Outside In: Discover at Cerno Capital

By |2018-09-28T10:49:05+00:00September 28th, 2018|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, Events, Other Posts|

Outside In and Cerno Capital are pleased to present Outside In: Discover, an exhibition celebrating artwork by three Outside In artists. Outside In was founded in 2006 at Pallant House Gallery and became an independent charity in 2016 following a highly successful decade. The award-winning charity works to provide a platform for people who face significant barriers to the art world whether due to health, disability, social circumstances or isolation, and currently supports 2,600 artists. We were able to collaborate with Outside In for this exhibition, displaying colourful works that are varied in style and representative of artists from diverse backgrounds reflecting Outside In’s inclusive ethos. All three exhibiting artists create work with strong, vibrant imagery, each with a very unique and distinct practice. Nnena Kalu works in an obsessive and determined way to develop a range of work with an underlying approach of a systematic layering. In the works on display, she uses repetitive lines which she draws in circular motion, responding to the rhythm and noise of creating the work. Once she has applied a painted background, she creates repeated lines with a circular motion, frequently following the same route to create heavily worked into vortex shapes and [...]

Cerno Capital awarded HK Connect status

By |2018-09-26T10:05:55+00:00September 25th, 2018|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment, Other Posts|

Following several months of work, we have been awarded HK Connect status which allows us to invest in Shenzhen and Shanghai listed ‘A’ shares (formerly known as local stock). The ‘stock connect’ link between China’s mainland markets and Hong Kong relaxes restrictions that historically split the Chinese stock market between shares targeted at local investors and those available to international investors. The link was first launched in 2014 between Shanghai and Hong Kong. In late 2016 it was further extended to include the burgeoning, technology hub of Shenzhen. It allows mainland Chinese to purchase shares listed in Hong Kong and lets foreigners buy China A shares listed on the mainland. This vastly expands the range of possible investments we can make in the world’s most exciting economy. Fay Ren, Co-Manager of TM Cerno Pacific & Emerging comments: “The A-share market is more than twice the size of the H-share market, giving us access to a wealth of new ideas to explore. There are some real gems in the mix and we are thrilled with the opportunity to find and own them, in particular the more tech oriented entrepreneurial names that are little known outside the country”. Goldman Sachs, with whom [...]

Ding, Dong Amazon.com – Bubble Valuation Techniques in Action

By |2018-09-17T09:00:15+00:00September 17th, 2018|Bottom Up, Cerno Capital Posts, Other Posts|

Imagine you have been diligently working away as an analyst in your investment bank and someday your boss comes to you and offers a promotion into the Technology team, specialising in e-fulfilment. The largest stock in your coverage is Amazon.com and your first order of business is to establish a price target for the stock from which a recommendation can be derived. All investment banks and brokerages require their analysts to provide price targets. Without them the sales function would struggle and it would be difficult to hang the logic of research recommendations on any peg. Amazon.com presents a particular challenge. It is the second largest listed company in the world, with a market capitalisation of US$969bn and, with US$1.68tn traded in its shares in the past 12 months, is of great economic consequence for “the Street”. Bloomberg indicates that 51 analysts have flagged coverage of the company, 47 maintaining a BUY, 3 advising HOLD and just a single SELL recommendation: from a Mr Allen Gillespie of South Carolina. Amazon.com has been a listed company for 21 years and profitable on a financial accounting basis only in the last 4. The company operates off very low margins, its net margin [...]