RussellNapier

About Russell Napier

Russell Napier is a stock market historian and global equity strategist. He began his career in investment at Baillie Gifford in Edinburgh, before joining the Asian stockbroker CLSA in May 1995 as an equity strategist in Hong Kong. He was ranked No.1 for Asian strategy in both the Asiamoney and Institutional Investor polls from 1997 to 1999. Most recently, he has acted as a consultant for CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, providing investment input to their institutional client base. Russell is also a director of the Scottish Investment Trust and the Mid Wynd International Investment Trust. His book Anatomy of a Bear – Learning from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms was published to critical and commercial acclaim. In 2013, Russell established a library of financial history in Edinburgh called The Library of Mistakes and was elected Fellow of The Society of Investment Professionals. In 2014, Russell founded the Electronic Research Interchange (ERIC), a new portal that connects equity market analysts with institutional investors. He runs a course for finance professionals at the Edinburgh Business School called A Practical History of Financial Markets which is generally cited as the best course of its kind in the UK.

Turkey: You Better Not Look Down

By |2017-11-17T12:29:59+00:00November 17th, 2017|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment, Other Posts|

Better not look down, Better not look down, If you want to keep on flying. Put the hammer down, Keep it full speed ahead. Better not look back Or you might just wind up cryin’. You can keep it moving, If you don't look down “Better Not Look Down”, Sample & Jennings, BB King, 1979 Perhaps your analyst has a cultural proclivity to look down too often. Certainly there have been no rewards in financial markets, at least since Q1 2016, for those not prepared to put the hammer down. Whether gauged by low cash levels in pension funds and mutual funds, high margin levels, low short interest levels or extinct volatility, all the evidence is that the hammer is down. Meanwhile, far below – so far it seems that even those occasionally glimpsing down cannot see it – a liquidity crisis is developing that is likely to become an emerging market debt crisis. Since Q1 2013 this analyst has been pointing out that the debtors of Turkey are likely to default. They may indeed be forced to do so if their government were to impose capital controls. Mass defaults have not occurred, though Turkey’s largest ever private sector default [...]