RussellNapier

About Russell Napier

Russell Napier is a stock market historian and global equity strategist. He began his career in investment at Baillie Gifford in Edinburgh, before joining the Asian stockbroker CLSA in May 1995 as an equity strategist in Hong Kong. He was ranked No.1 for Asian strategy in both the Asiamoney and Institutional Investor polls from 1997 to 1999. Most recently, he has acted as a consultant for CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, providing investment input to their institutional client base. Russell is also a director of the Scottish Investment Trust and the Mid Wynd International Investment Trust. His book Anatomy of a Bear – Learning from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms was published to critical and commercial acclaim. In 2013, Russell established a library of financial history in Edinburgh called The Library of Mistakes and was elected Fellow of The Society of Investment Professionals. In 2014, Russell founded the Electronic Research Interchange (ERIC), a new portal that connects equity market analysts with institutional investors. He runs a course for finance professionals at the Edinburgh Business School called A Practical History of Financial Markets which is generally cited as the best course of its kind in the UK.

Coronavirus and economies – thoughts from Russell Napier

By |2020-03-05T13:15:19+00:00March 5th, 2020|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment|

Banks will be at the forefront of this given that missing interest payments will be the norm not an exception in a pandemic. This will come in several forms: 1) Forbearance. These measures are already in place in China and I are beginning in Europe. Banks would be told not to foreclose of businesses and individuals who did not make interest payments. I also think that such a policy might be quite difficult to reverse as politicians might get a taste for this form of intervention. Given banks’ incomes would decline, they would need a cash flow to replace the missing interest payments and this would likely be in the form of loans from central banks. 2) Fiscal expansion & tax forbearance. Useful but hardly likely to close the gap if everybody is indoors but there are still things that can be done in terms of delaying tax payments. It might not have a lot of impact but it will get key players, such as Germany, over the Rubicon to a world where fiscal expansion is acceptable. It might be enough to get Eurozone countries to back Lagarde’s plan for “helicopter money”. 3) Purchase of corporate debt. Corporate debt is [...]

Turkey: You Better Not Look Down

By |2017-11-17T12:29:59+00:00November 17th, 2017|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment, Other Posts|

Better not look down, Better not look down, If you want to keep on flying. Put the hammer down, Keep it full speed ahead. Better not look back Or you might just wind up cryin’. You can keep it moving, If you don't look down “Better Not Look Down”, Sample & Jennings, BB King, 1979 Perhaps your analyst has a cultural proclivity to look down too often. Certainly there have been no rewards in financial markets, at least since Q1 2016, for those not prepared to put the hammer down. Whether gauged by low cash levels in pension funds and mutual funds, high margin levels, low short interest levels or extinct volatility, all the evidence is that the hammer is down. Meanwhile, far below – so far it seems that even those occasionally glimpsing down cannot see it – a liquidity crisis is developing that is likely to become an emerging market debt crisis. Since Q1 2013 this analyst has been pointing out that the debtors of Turkey are likely to default. They may indeed be forced to do so if their government were to impose capital controls. Mass defaults have not occurred, though Turkey’s largest ever private sector default [...]