US

Global Financial Assets and the Trump Presidency

By | 2016-11-09T10:47:05+00:00 November 9th, 2016|Asset Class Returns, Cerno Capital Posts, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment, US|

Financial markets will struggle to adjust to what was a very possible, however largely unexpected and definitely undesired result. Between today and his inauguration on the 20th January, they will pay rapt attention to every utterance of President elect Trump. Already, we see a gulf between the rhetoric of the campaign and his acceptance speech which, for the large part, hit the usual magnanimous marks. This though was written by others and it was all too obvious where he extemporised: “it will be a beautiful thing”. It is not difficult to locate why this has happened in political historical terms. America is about to become a minority white country and many resent this. Nor were all ready for the Obama presidency. Real wages for all but the top echelons have stagnated since the early ‘80s, fostering disappointment over a generation. A large majority of the country is pessimistic about the prospects for their children and 69% of the population is either “angry” or “disappointed” with their politicians and political processes. In broad portfolio terms, looking beyond the snap reactions, the key question is whether this introduces a change of direction for the world economy and its financial asset classes. From [...]