Following several months of work, we have been awarded HK Connect status which allows us to invest in Shenzhen and Shanghai listed ‘A’ shares (formerly known as local stock). The ‘stock connect’ link between China’s mainland markets and Hong Kong relaxes restrictions that historically split the Chinese stock market between shares targeted at local investors and those available to international investors. The link was first launched in 2014 between Shanghai and Hong Kong. In late 2016 it was further extended to include the burgeoning, technology hub of Shenzhen. It allows mainland Chinese to purchase shares listed in Hong Kong and lets foreigners buy China A shares listed on the mainland. This vastly expands the range of possible investments we can make in the world’s most exciting economy. Fay Ren, Co-Manager of TM Cerno Pacific & Emerging comments: “The A-share market is more than twice the size of the H-share market, giving us access to a wealth of new ideas to explore. There are some real gems in the mix and we are thrilled with the opportunity to find and own them, in particular the more tech oriented entrepreneurial names that are little known outside the country”. Goldman Sachs, with whom [...]
Imagine you have been diligently working away as an analyst in your investment bank and someday your boss comes to you and offers a promotion into the Technology team, specialising in e-fulfilment. The largest stock in your coverage is Amazon.com and your first order of business is to establish a price target for the stock from which a recommendation can be derived. All investment banks and brokerages require their analysts to provide price targets. Without them the sales function would struggle and it would be difficult to hang the logic of research recommendations on any peg. Amazon.com presents a particular challenge. It is the second largest listed company in the world, with a market capitalisation of US$969bn and, with US$1.68tn traded in its shares in the past 12 months, is of great economic consequence for “the Street”. Bloomberg indicates that 51 analysts have flagged coverage of the company, 47 maintaining a BUY, 3 advising HOLD and just a single SELL recommendation: from a Mr Allen Gillespie of South Carolina. Amazon.com has been a listed company for 21 years and profitable on a financial accounting basis only in the last 4. The company operates off very low margins, its net margin [...]
Update: On the 24th of September, the shareholders of JLIF voted to determine the future of the trust. The turnout displayed a disappointing level of shareholder apathy with just 54% of the available votes being cast. Of the votes cast, 85% voted in favour of the takeover. The shares of JLIF will cease to trade on the 28th of September. Attention will now shift to other listed vehicles that may prove attractive to private capital. Such capital appears to be willing to operate with lower discount rates than the public markets deem prudent. The John Laing Infrastructure Fund Limited is a holding in Cerno multi-asset portfolios due to the attractive characteristics of the infrastructure assets it owns – principally, long term inflation linked cash-flows deriving from availability-based payments on socially and economically important infrastructure assets. On the 16th of July, the Board of John Laing Infrastructure Fund Limited (JLIF) announced that following an unsolicited approach from a consortium of Dalmore Capital Limited and Equitix Investment Management Limited (the Consortium), discussions were continuing over a Possible Offer to purchase the entire shareholder capital of JLIF at a price of 142.5 pence. On the 3rd of August, the possible offer became a [...]
Our aim, within the context of the Global Leaders Fund, is to own great companies over multiple market cycles. In this way we operate over a timeframe where competition is scarcer, allowing us the best opportunity to outperform global markets. This overarching objective is underpinned by three concepts: growth, long term relevance (sustainability of returns) and financial soundness. All three are crucial in delineating the leading businesses we want to own. Companies that we can employ in a concentrated, low turnover portfolio and sleep comfortably at night. Growth is perhaps the easier to define: does the company have the tools at its disposal to compound earnings at an attractive rate over time. Relevance and sustainability has sharply diverging meanings depending on who one asks. Our preference is to cast the net as broadly as possible: simply, a company whose current earnings to do not borrow from its future earnings. This concept is wide ranging and influences the fund exclusions. Tobacco for example, where new customers must be found to offset the natural elimination of the existing base by the product itself. Old energy with the extensive disruption from renewables already in full swing. Banks, where inherent leverage hangs like a [...]
Conducting big business in the decades following the industrial revolution normally entailed the marshalling of labour and resources in a profitable sinecure. Fur trappers and tin miners, agriculture and energy, railroads and steel all fit this model. These industries persist today but are becoming scarce in the pantheon of very top companies measured by market capitalisation or economic value addition. Labour has mobilised, a thicket of laws exists to prevent excessive exploitation and monopolies of international scale are prohibited. Only perhaps in the world of software and social media have we seen the kind of recently accrued market share power that breeds exploitative practices: Microsoft’s dominance of operating system software is a matter of historic fact and Facebook’s control of the network effect across its platforms are prime examples of predatory corporate behaviour: rabid until checked. Outside these large and unusual cases, successful companies conducting business across multiple continents need to balance of standardisation against customisation. Standard so often entails stand-still which is a death curse for companies. At the other end of the spectrum, few businesses can adopt a fully bespoke offering and hope to grow beyond their artisanal roots. There is another category, companies and sometimes just one-person [...]
We were delighted to recently support David Bell, PCD Club, and Fraser Dyer, FED London, as they undertook the Maidstone to Monaco Rally in aid of the Parenta Trust, who build schools and provide education for pre-school children in Uganda. Participants in the Rally have built 6 schools in the last 6 years, providing opportunities to some of the world’s poorest families. This year, the Rally group have raised £16,000 for the cause, which will provide education for 150 children. David and Fraser documented their journey over the Alps, which they share with us below: On Wednesday 27 June, 7 cars left Maidstone with a goal of getting to Monaco and back via the Swiss Alps in 5 days. The twist was that cars have to be bought for less than £500 and are decorated, coming in all shapes and sizes. On our trip was an ancient Volvo covered in carpet; a Land Rover with 250,000 on the clock and a Vauxhall Corsa that was about to be scrapped. Our car was a convertible 1997 MG MGF with 153,000 on the clock, easily the best car there! We were kindly sponsored in our mission by Cerno Capital and a couple [...]
We are delighted to announce that Nick Hornby has been named as one of the Top Ten Ultra High Net Worth Wealth Managers 2018 by Spear's. In the accompanying entry, Spear's writes that Cerno Capital has just celebrated ten years as a firm, with Nick looking forward to expanding the firm's offering from a boutique focusing on private clients to taking on business from consultants and financial intermediaries. Nick's entry can be seen below, and the full online entry can be read here.
A short history of Italian government debt Italy’s titanic national debt, similarly to Rome, was not built in a day. In Italy, like much of Europe, the saga begins benignly in the ashes of World War II. The economic miracles experienced by states such as Greece, Germany and Japan in the 1950s-60s as the countries rebuilt their economies from the ground up (with aid from the US Marshall plan) resulted in two decades of breakneck economic growth. In Italy this period was known as ‘il miracolo economico’. GDP growth averaged just below 6% until 1963 and 5% thereafter until 1973. This boom eventually gave way to fiscal largesse in an attempt to continue the dramatic growth rates and associated quality of life improvements the domestic population had grown accustomed to. With the puncturing of ‘il miracolo’ during the 1973 global oil crisis, subsequent Italian governments borrowed their way to increased prosperity. From the Years of Lead in the 1970s to Rampartism in the 80s and the Second Republic of 1992, Italian debt steadily rose from 30% of GDP, along with real living standards. Italy Debt to GDP ratio 1900-2018. Source: Bloomberg By the early 90s where our overview begins, Italian [...]
In his autobiography, “The Way the Wind Blows”, former prime minister Alec Douglas-Home recounted bucolic childhood memories of Scottish summer holidays with each day’s activities determined by the direction of the wind. That wind is increasingly viewed as part of the solution to society’s need for a sustainable source of electricity. Critics of wind power were understandably numerous, when faced with the prospect of the spread of futuristic turbines across wild places. Perhaps, like Home might, they fear for the plight of game birds and the visual pollution that on-shore wind farms bring. Technical and operational hurdles for on-shore wind farms include the unreliability of on-shore wind speeds and wind shadow – the phenomenon of wind strength depletion downstream of a turbine. There is also the question of availability of suitable sites. Like raindrops on sun-bleached rock, these concerns evaporate when wind turbines are placed off-shore. Off-shore wind is more reliable, which means more consistent energy generation and average wind-speeds are higher which permits the use of bigger turbines and therefore greater energy generation capacity. The UK is at the front of the pack of nations building off-shore wind infrastructure. In 2017, the UK generated 15% of its electricity requirement [...]
Newly approved Pacific & Emerging strategy stock: China Literature operates China’s largest online reading platforms, comprising 48% of the total online & mobile reading market with 191mn monthly users. The company hosts a proprietary library of 10.1 million literary works spanning 200 genres, generated by its 6.9 million writers online, for consumption online. Bypassing the traditional publisher model, popular titles are monetised through paid subscriptions and, increasingly, through licensed adaptations into other media formats including film & TV, web series, animations, games, and audio & physical books. Leveraging its scale, treasure trove of intellectual property and distribution capability, the company has entrenched itself at the centre of China’s literary ecosystem, connecting writers, readers and adaptation partners. China’s online literature market is expected to grow at +31% CAGR to 2020, having achieved a +45% p.a. growth between 2013-16. The wider Chinese entertainment market is also seeing robust growth (+14% CAGR to 2020). The domestic Chinese box office is set to overtake the US this year, giving rise to strong demand for high quality content.