Cerno Capital

Global Healthcare – The New Ways

By |2019-02-15T16:08:03+00:00February 15th, 2019|Asset Allocation, Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment|

Nothing is certain but death and taxes. To this Benjamin Franklin might have reasonably addended ‘but people’s desire to avoid both should not be underestimated’. Putting aside the morality of the latter the desire to maximise one’s health speaks to us all. It is this desire which has helped the healthcare sector to deliver enviable multi-year returns. Globally the sector has generated a total return of 9% p.a. since 2005, outperforming the broader market by over 2% p.a. Source: Bloomberg, world = developed markets But fortunes have not been evenly distributed. Beneath the surface the drivers of growth are shifting. Since the late ‘80s cash earnings for the broad healthcare space have exhibited a rising trend against the market, illustrating the unique secular demand underpinning the sector. However, the beneficiaries of this demand have rotated. Large cap pharma, often a heuristic for the sector, continues to dominate the market cap spectrum, but better growth is to be found elsewhere. This is reflected in starkly contrasting stock performance. Despite representing some 50% of the whole, pharma gained only 46% since 2012 (a CAGR of 6%) against the sector up 112% (CAGR: 13%). Distributable Cash Earnings - US Healthcare vs S&P 500, [...]

Investment Letter dated 6th February 2019

By |2019-02-06T11:38:44+00:00February 6th, 2019|Cerno Capital, General Investment, Investment Letters, Other Posts|

The MSCI EAFE Index is an index of performance of world shares, ex US. EAFE stands for Europe, Australasia, Far East. This index is often used as a benchmark for US pension fund allocators whose traditional view of the world is divided by US allocations and International allocations. EAFE Equity mandates are granted to invest in shares anywhere in the world, excluding the US. Performance is measured against the MSCI EAFE Index. US$2.2tn is managed this way. The reason for displaying this is to understand the trend in global equity markets, outside the US. The Index, captioned below by the blue line, achieved a recent peak on the 25th of January 2018 and has fallen 16.7% from that peak until the time of writing. The wider All Country ex US (the green line which includes Emerging Markets) peaked on the same day and has fallen 16.3% since then. This data includes the January rally. In simple terms, the world, ex US, has marginally escaped the bear market territory (defined as a 20% fall in an index) which it entered on 17th December. The bigger picture is that the world is slowing, although not abruptly and not currently in the US. [...]

World Monetary Conditions – What Temperature is the Porridge?

By |2019-02-05T15:16:14+00:00February 5th, 2019|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment|

If we cast our minds back to this time a year ago (or even 6 months ago), the common consensus was 2019 was going to be a period of tightening financial conditions. US unemployment was nudging below 4% and wage growth was finally perking up. The S&P 500 was on track for its best start in 30 years. The Fed appeared to be ahead of the pack in actively tightening rates and the ECB was making noises about stabilising QE and raising rates for the first time after the summer of 2019. Fast forward to the ructions of Q4 2018 and central banks seem terrified they have pushed too far too fast. The FOMC meeting in December turned the month from a correction into a rout with Governor Powell’s somewhat headstrong communique on rate increases and autopilot balance sheet runoff. In contrast the latest Fed minutes (only a month later) were as close to total capitulation as the Fed could reach without risking credibility in the markets’ eyes. In his comments, Powell made concessions on the rate path, number of hikes and most importantly on the balance sheet run off. On the other side of the Pacific, China’s Central Bank, [...]

What does credit default pricing tell us about the cycle?

By |2018-11-23T12:55:49+00:00November 23rd, 2018|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, Credit, General Investment|

Credit risk is the risk that companies do not repay their debts. This risk can be measured and traded. CDX IG is an index comprising the 125 most liquid single name Credit Default Swaps (CDS) in the investment grade space in the US. The most commonly traded tenor point is 5 years and the index is refreshed by the provider every 6 months to maintain maturity and liquidity profile of the underlying names. We are currently on series 31 (meaning the index has been running in one form or another since 2002-2003). The index is quoted in terms of basis points and a quote represents the annual cost of insuring a notional amount of the underlying assets (as a simple approximation). For example; with CDX IG NA currently trading at 78bps (0.78%) an investor paying to insure US$10mn for 5 years would pay US$78,000 annually. In return for this insurance premium they would be made whole (minus the recovery rate) in the event of any defaults during the period, proportionate to the size of the constituent. On the flip side, the seller of such a contract would receive US$78,000 annually whilst being on the hook for the above obligations. These [...]

Nick Hornby wins the Outstanding Achievement Award at the Spear’s Wealth Management Awards 2018

By |2018-11-07T11:52:39+00:00November 7th, 2018|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Media Mentions, Cerno Capital Posts|

On Tuesday 6th November, Nick Hornby was awarded the top award at the Spear’s Wealth Management Awards 2018, held at The Dorchester. The Outstanding Achievement Award is the highest reward that Spear's give out at what has come to be known as the UK’s “financial Oscars”. The awards celebrate the very best in wealth management, private banking and law, acknowledging innovation, success and outstanding contributions to  wealth management and beyond. Presenting Nick with his award, the judges commented that, “[Nick is] a person of top quality, a fantastic ambassador for the industry doing something really different. A standout, praising his huge credibility”. We are delighted that Nick’s dedication to Cerno Capital’s investors over the past 11 years has been recognised by our peers.

Equity Markets – Swords Drawn

By |2018-10-12T15:55:21+00:00October 12th, 2018|Asset Allocation, Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, Other Posts|

The sudden break-down in headline indices is stimulating a great deal of considered comment and a tweet or three from President Trump. The Fed’s fault? Well, in part. We summarise Governor Powell’s approach to monetary policy as “giddy up”: to temper the US economy during a period of extranormal growth and build some reserve for future cuts when the next crisis comes along. The second part has been referred to by past Governor Bernanke as “putting bullets in the gun”. In the very short term, portfolio managers of all stripes are assessing the collateral effects of this downward move in equity markets. Questions being asked are how is the dollar responding (down a bit), how is gold responding (up a bit), how is oil responding (down US$2bbl) and finally how is the US bond market responding (down a bit in capital value terms)? Measurement of these cross correlations allows people to assess whether the correction is a crisis - the very short-term conclusion being no. The more worrying combination would be a strong move upward in gold and downward in bond yields which would be reflective of actual cash flows out of equity markets into haven assets. This has not [...]

Outside In: Discover at Cerno Capital

By |2018-09-28T10:49:05+00:00September 28th, 2018|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, Events, Other Posts|

Outside In and Cerno Capital are pleased to present Outside In: Discover, an exhibition celebrating artwork by three Outside In artists. Outside In was founded in 2006 at Pallant House Gallery and became an independent charity in 2016 following a highly successful decade. The award-winning charity works to provide a platform for people who face significant barriers to the art world whether due to health, disability, social circumstances or isolation, and currently supports 2,600 artists. We were able to collaborate with Outside In for this exhibition, displaying colourful works that are varied in style and representative of artists from diverse backgrounds reflecting Outside In’s inclusive ethos. All three exhibiting artists create work with strong, vibrant imagery, each with a very unique and distinct practice. Nnena Kalu works in an obsessive and determined way to develop a range of work with an underlying approach of a systematic layering. In the works on display, she uses repetitive lines which she draws in circular motion, responding to the rhythm and noise of creating the work. Once she has applied a painted background, she creates repeated lines with a circular motion, frequently following the same route to create heavily worked into vortex shapes and [...]

Cerno Capital awarded HK Connect status

By |2018-09-26T10:05:55+00:00September 25th, 2018|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, General Investment, Other Posts|

Following several months of work, we have been awarded HK Connect status which allows us to invest in Shenzhen and Shanghai listed ‘A’ shares (formerly known as local stock). The ‘stock connect’ link between China’s mainland markets and Hong Kong relaxes restrictions that historically split the Chinese stock market between shares targeted at local investors and those available to international investors. The link was first launched in 2014 between Shanghai and Hong Kong. In late 2016 it was further extended to include the burgeoning, technology hub of Shenzhen. It allows mainland Chinese to purchase shares listed in Hong Kong and lets foreigners buy China A shares listed on the mainland. This vastly expands the range of possible investments we can make in the world’s most exciting economy. Fay Ren, Co-Manager of TM Cerno Pacific & Emerging comments: “The A-share market is more than twice the size of the H-share market, giving us access to a wealth of new ideas to explore. There are some real gems in the mix and we are thrilled with the opportunity to find and own them, in particular the more tech oriented entrepreneurial names that are little known outside the country”. Goldman Sachs, with whom [...]

Investment Letter – September 2018

By |2018-09-10T13:27:54+00:00September 10th, 2018|Cerno Capital, Investment Letters|

The current economic and stock market cycles are unusually long in duration and this leads to obvious questions about what will be the cause of its ending. There are several oft mentioned candidates: protectionism, a fall in historically high margins, a strong dollar and interest rates or some combination of these factors. Students of stock market valuation over time are liable to point to how highly valued equities are and this is hard to dispute. To our minds, the biggest threats to the US stock market lies within the international (non-US) outlook combined with shifts in demand for equities and their valuation. The valuation observation is notoriously difficult to narrow down in a causal sense and apply to time frames. Current high valuations are a pointer to sub-normal returns over the medium term but not the short term. Specifically, they tell us something, in a probabilistic sense, about how returns will pan out over a seven-year time frame, not a one-year time frame. (This is what our own testing has shown). Considerations of the net-demand for equities is thinly trampled terrain for the equity market analyst. It is common place in bond circles to speak of such things – they [...]

The Custom Option

By |2018-07-11T08:54:19+00:00July 9th, 2018|Cerno Capital, Cerno Capital Posts, Cerno Global Leaders, General Investment, Global Leaders, Investment Quarterly, Other Posts, Strategy|

Conducting big business in the decades following the industrial revolution normally entailed the marshalling of labour and resources in a profitable sinecure. Fur trappers and tin miners, agriculture and energy, railroads and steel all fit this model. These industries persist today but are becoming scarce in the pantheon of very top companies measured by market capitalisation or economic value addition. Labour has mobilised, a thicket of laws exists to prevent excessive exploitation and monopolies of international scale are prohibited. Only perhaps in the world of software and social media have we seen the kind of recently accrued market share power that breeds exploitative practices: Microsoft’s dominance of operating system software is a matter of historic fact and Facebook’s control of the network effect across its platforms are prime examples of predatory corporate behaviour: rabid until checked. Outside these large and unusual cases, successful companies conducting business across multiple continents need to balance of standardisation against customisation. Standard so often entails stand-still which is a death curse for companies. At the other end of the spectrum, few businesses can adopt a fully bespoke offering and hope to grow beyond their artisanal roots. There is another category, companies and sometimes just one-person [...]