Cerno Capital has received a Suggestus 3D Award for 2017 from Asset Risk Consultants (ARC).
When the owner of capital engages the services of professionals to manage that capital,
The world is guessing as to what parts of Donald Trump’s electioneering agenda he will deliver on.
Financial markets will struggle to adjust to what was a very possible, however largely unexpected and definitely undesired result.
Cerno Global Leaders is a long term equity investment programme designed to identify and invest in high quality, defensible business franchises.
The growth of passive investment strategies has been supported by a narrative that active management should be shunned in favour of the passive approaches which have disrupted the investment management landscape.
In our recent article for Citywire magazine ‘Fundmanagers as Futurologists’, we analysed how technological developments
The potential to use investor sentiment as a gauge for future market trajectory is an appealing proposition.
This article was first seen on The Mixed Zone – the women’s online sport magazine
The S&P 500 index peaked in late May 2015 at 2130, having enjoyed a seven year bull run.
We are pleased to announce our webpage for international clients is launched and now live.
The hunt for income continued in 2015. Equity income investors who were drawn to the energy and materials sectors faced the headwind of commodity price declines.
Share buybacks, or the repurchase of shares by listed companies is a popular use of listed companies’ cash.
In recent weeks, China has dominated the headlines; in particular the recent stock market and currency volatility have sparked fear across global markets.
Although it was a disappointing Ashes Test for England Women at Canterbury last week, Cerno Capital hosted an event to remember on the second day of play at the Spitfire Ground.
In an ideal world, an investment portfolio would deliver a total return in excess of that of the risk-free rate (e.g. Gilts)
The change to China’s currency regime has potentially large consequences for global financial assets. It should prompt new thoughts.
Sometimes one comes across a written piece that so succinctly expresses a held point of view that the only job in hand is to circulate it.
The above chart, which is sourced from the Bank Credit Analyst, depicts the deviation from mean real yields since 1980 for the world’s major government bond markets.
Since mid-2014, the trade-weighted dollar index has surged 21%. If this is indeed a new bull market in the US dollar, it is not yet fully fledged.
“Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It’s to see my dividends coming in.” – John D. Rockefeller
Hugh Sloane of Sloane Robinson (SR), one of Cerno Capital’s Investment Advisory Board Members,
We all know that the UK and US stock markets have risen over the past 50 years.
On the 10th of June Cerno Capital hosted a round table discussion with Douglas Brodie,
For the unconstrained global investor, Australia is a prospective hunting ground for profit.
Within global equity markets, April saw value style indices outperform growth style indices.
There is a sea change in corporate behaviour in Japan that is leading to a focus on capital efficiency,
The Cerno Global Leaders Programme seeks to identify and invest in a group of companies worldwide which possess leadership attributes with a view to holding them for the long term.
Throughout 2014, institutional investors have become more concentrated in their positioning.
Through the first 8 years of the noughties, global healthcare stocks were notable underperformers.
One of our larger accounts rang me this week to ask what we thought of the geopolitical situation and how we were positioning for this.
The cyclically-adjusted price earnings ratio (CAPE), also known as Shiller’s P/E, continues to fascinate stock market watchers. The ratio, developed by the Nobel laureate Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University, and further popularised by market commentators such as John Authers, Andrew Smithers and Russell Napier, quantifies the relationship between the price of the stock market… Read more »
The election-inspired excitement of Narendra Modi’s landslide victory in May has subsided and investors are beginning to question whether the Modi government can actually deliver on their promised reforms. The macro story in India is very powerful, with inflation falling, interest rates dropping and the currency strengthening. All this at time of weakening commodity prices,… Read more »
We live in a world where a teenager can discount future cash flows with the aid of a financial calculator. A little screen tells him the price/value of a financial instrument to as many decimal places as takes his fancy. This great leap forward for mankind has, however, not made the valuation of financial instruments… Read more »
Global Oil and Gas stocks have been rerated to levels not seen since 2000. Exhibit 1 (below) maps their relative decline in Price to Book Value (PBV) terms. In this respect, they are experiencing the mirror image phenomenon to that of Tech and Internet stocks, whose valuations have been rising. Energy companies are also asset… Read more »
It has long been observed by eminent practitioners that the market really represents nothing more than a pendulum that swings back and forth through the median line of rationality spending little time at the point of rationality and most of the time on one side or the other. In August last year we wrote that… Read more »
Before addressing the particular merits of dynamic asset allocation it is worthwhile examining the attributes of its notional alternative: static asset allocation. Termed in this manner, we might not immediately recognise static asset allocation. To a marketer’s attuned ears, it lacks intuitive appeal: stasis being less comment worthy than dynamism. Dynamism, after all, is an… Read more »
Recent analysis conducted at Cerno Capital reveals a positive correlation between the event driven hedge fund universe and the excess returns of smaller companies over larger companies. At the time of writing, we have observed meaningful outperformance of smaller capitalisation shares globally and some suggestions of an uplift in the fundamentals for event driven managers…. Read more »
We remain of the view that investment returns from gold will disappoint. It is a widely held belief that gold is an inflation hedge. We challenged this view in a recent piece entitled Inflation protection is a noble aim, but not a reliable strategy (see What normalisation means for investors elsewhere on this website http://cernocapital.com/investment-view/)…. Read more »
If it takes a theory to beat a theory, then there may finally be an alternative to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) first proposed by Eugene Fama in the 1960s. Paul Woolley, formerly of GMO and the founder of The Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality at the LSE has offered… Read more »
Returns from government bonds have matched that of equities in the past thirty years. Their risk adjusted returns are therefore superior. Bonds have been the stand out asset class during the Age of Disinflation that lasted from 1982 to 2012. We do not know whether we are arriving at an age of inflation but the… Read more »
Emerging equity markets enjoyed a decade of relative outperformance over developed equity markets up to 2010. Since then, emerging equity markets have underperformed. Headline valuations suggest emerging value in emerging equity markets. However we doubt whether the time is propitious and we remain cautious. Furthermore, the emerging equity universe should not be treated as a… Read more »
The wish to protect against inflation is a base emotion within investor psychology: one that lies deep within. Failure to offset inflation results in a decrease in real spending power. Over half a generation, the effects of this are meaningful; over multiple generations, families fall, countries fail and the formerly rich become only averagely endowed…. Read more »
Cross asset correlations have been rising for a number of years as the commodification of finance proceeds apace. In tandem with this, cross regional international equity market correlations have risen with the penetration of emerging markets’ consumer markets and the infiltration of emerging markets in the global production chain. Apple sells as much stuff in… Read more »
When investors fail to secure sufficient compensation for bearing illiquidity, they almost always come to regret it. The summer reaction of certain asset classes to the Fed’s suggestion that it was considering reducing the pace of its bond purchases exposed vulnerabilities for the future. list of domains . The US-centred bond market sell-off in June… Read more »
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